PROGNOSIS FOR THE TIMBER INDUSTRY

The next few years look positive for the timber industry, as the demand is high and the supply adequate.
In the medium term, however, a timber shortage looms, as the total area under plantation in South Africa is not expanding in line with the demand for structural timber, Roy Southey, the Executive Director of Sawmilling South Africa, told the Dolphin Bay Brief.
“South Africa is self-sufficient regarding structural timber at this stage,” Roy said. “The shortage in the next five to six years is what we have to address.”
This year, the demand for structural timber is particularly high in the Southern Cape and Western Cape, Roy said. Indications are that the pole industry too, is healthy, largely because the government is still implementing large electrification programmes.
After five or six years, the supply is expected to become inadequate for demand. Plans are not yet in place to ensure an adequate local supply, and it is estimated that South Africa will have to import nearly half its pine for structural purposes within the next two decades.
The sawmilling industry is in consultation with the government about several possible remedial measures. One is for the government to grant licences for more plantations. The restrictions were introduced about 20 years ago due to a dwindling water supply, and as the economy of the country grew, the establishment of forests lagged behind. It takes 22-30 years for trees to mature sufficiently to be used for structural timber, depending on where the plantations are in the country.
Another measure is for the sawmilling industry to increase its efficiency. “At the moment, only about 49% of every tree is used, of which 20% goes into the structural industry,” said Roy. “We need to improve this figure.”
Expensive new technology would be required to achieve this. “We have been talking to the Department of Trade and Industry about this possibility, but whether it is viable for companies at this stage is debatable.”
Roy said that each of the measures to ensure an adequate supply of South African-grown timber would take many years to implement.
“The best option, in our current situation, is to expand the area under plantations,” he said.